Hamilton Homeowners Are Losing Cash Flow, New BoC Data Shows

You've heard the line a hundred times. Renters are the ones getting squeezed, homeowners are sitting pretty. New research out of the Bank of Canada just turned that on its head, and if you own a home in Hamilton right now, it's worth five minutes of your time.

What the data says

Bank of Canada researcher Yaz Terajima tracked household income against household spending across the country from 2020 to 2025. For most of that stretch, Canadians came out slightly ahead, spending about $6,500 more on average while incomes grew $7,400. By 2025 that surplus had shrunk to just $274, and the breakdown underneath that number is where it gets interesting.

Split by income, the bottom 60% of households are now running an annual deficit, anywhere from about $4,200 to $6,800 short depending on the group. Split by age, only households under 35 are in the red, down roughly $4,249 a year, while every other age group is still positive.

But the split that matters most to you is homeowner versus renter. Homeowners posted an average annual shortfall of $1,817 in 2025. Renters were down just $90. The report points to a specific cause: buyers who took on large mortgages near the 2020-2021 price peak are the ones carrying that gap.

What it means if you're thinking about selling your current place

If you bought your Hamilton home in that window, this data is describing you, at least on paper. A bigger mortgage payment eating into a household budget that's already stretched by inflation is exactly the kind of cash flow squeeze that makes people feel stuck in a home rather than in control of it.

Here's what the headline number leaves out. That same mortgage is attached to a property that's likely worth substantially more than you paid, even after the market pulled back from its peak. A cash flow deficit on paper and being stuck are two different things. The equity you've built is real money, and it's sitting there whether you feel the monthly squeeze or not.

What it means for what you can afford to move into

This data also explains something a lot of move-up buyers are noticing right now: lenders are being more careful. When national numbers show most households running tighter cash flow, banks tighten how they qualify buyers for a new mortgage, even good buyers with strong equity. If you're planning a move in the next 3 to 6 months, get a real conversation going with a lender now, before you list, so you know exactly what your equity buys you and what the new payment actually looks like. That's a very different exercise than guessing based on what your neighbour's mortgage payment might be.

It also means pricing your current home right matters more than ever. In a market where buyers are watching every dollar, an overpriced listing sits, and a well-priced one moves. If you want to see how today's market conditions are actually playing out for sellers, that's worth a read before you set your number.

Doug's take

I talk to people every week who bought their Hamilton home in 2020 or 2021, and I hear the same thing. The mortgage feels heavier than they expected, but they're scared to move because rates are still higher than what they locked in. What this data tells me is that feeling isn't in your head, it's showing up in the national numbers too. But feeling squeezed and being stuck are not the same thing. If you've been waiting on a rate cut before you make your move, you might be waiting on the wrong signal. The equity you've built while feeling that squeeze could be exactly what gets you into a home that actually fits your life better, and with the city recently freezing development charges on new builds, your options on the move-up side just got a bit more affordable too.

If you're thinking about making a move in Hamilton, I'd love to help you figure out what that actually looks like for your situation. Give me a call, send an email at doug@muircorealty.ca, or fill in your info here and I'll reach out to you.

Doug Muir | Hamilton Realtor | Muir Co Realty

doug@muircorealty.ca

www.muircorealty.ca/contact