Ontario Isn't Building Enough Homes. What That Means for Your Hamilton Move.

You've been in your Hamilton home for a few years now. Maybe it's the place in east Hamilton you bought when the kids were small, or the semi in Stoney Creek that felt huge at the time and feels a little tight today. You keep hearing that a wave of new homes is coming, that the government's building 1.5 million of them, that all you have to do is wait and your options will open up. So let's have an honest conversation about that, because the latest numbers tell a different story.

Here's what the market is actually doing

New data from CMHC shows Ontario housing starts dropped about three percent in May. We're nearly halfway through 2026, and the province has begun work on just over 26,000 new homes against a target of 175,000 for the year. That's about 15 percent of the goal with 42 percent of the year already gone. The Ford government has even admitted out loud that its 1.5 million homes by 2031 plan is a "soft target," which is the kind of phrase people use when they already know it won't happen.

I know the government keeps announcing things. They cut the HST for new homebuyers, they partnered with Ottawa to lower development charges, they keep saying there's a "buzz" in builder sales offices. And to be fair, the housing minister specifically mentioned Hamilton as one of the cities where he's hearing that buzz. But buzz in a sales office is not the same as homes getting finished and handed over. The shovels-in-the-ground numbers went down, not up. I dug into a similar gap between the announcements and the reality in my post on how Ontario's HST rebate actually plays out for your Hamilton home.

The honest pros and cons of moving now versus waiting

Here's the case for waiting: prices in Hamilton are still soft, and if you believe a flood of new supply is coming, more inventory should mean more choice and better deals down the road. That's the bet a lot of people are making right now.

Here's the problem with that bet. The supply isn't coming, at least not on the timeline anyone promised. When fewer homes get built, the move-up homes you actually want, the four-bedroom in Ancaster, the detached on a real lot in Waterdown, stay scarce. Scarcity is what's been holding up the value of the home you already own, even while the headlines talk about a soft market. I broke down exactly where prices sit in my post on what it means now that Hamilton prices are below their 2021 peak.

What would actually make this work

The move-up math works best when you sell and buy in the same market. Right now both your current home and your next one are priced off the same softer market, so the gap between them is smaller than it was at the peak. If you wait for new supply to "fix" affordability and it doesn't arrive, you could end up selling into a tighter, more competitive market later while paying more for your next place. I went deeper on that timing question in whether the move-up window is closing this summer.

Doug's Take

If you were sitting across from me at my kitchen table, here's what I'd tell you. Stop waiting for a building boom that the government itself says isn't coming. The plan to build our way out of this is years behind, and it's not going to rescue your timeline. That doesn't mean rush. It means make your decision based on your life and the math in front of you today, not on a promise of supply that keeps getting smaller in the rear-view mirror. The people who do well in a market like this are the ones who move on real numbers, not headlines.

If you're thinking about making a move in Hamilton, I'd love to help you figure out what that actually looks like for your situation. Give me a call, send an email at doug@muircorealty.ca, or reach out through my website and I'll get back to you.

Doug Muir | Hamilton Realtor | Muir Co Realty

doug@muircorealty.ca

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